Global Construction Outlook to 2022: Q3 2018 Update
GlobalData expects the pace of expansion in the global construction industry to average 3.6% a year over the forecast period (2018-2022). In real value terms (measured at constant 2017 prices and US$ exchange rates), global construction output is forecast to rise to US$12.9 trillion in 2022, up from US$10.8 trillion in 2017.
There are intensifying downside risks to global economic growth, notably stemming from the erupting trade war between the US and China, but the global economy will continue to expand in the range of 2.5% to 3% a year in 2018-2022. The tightening in monetary policy in major markets will push up the cost of borrowing, but given that interest rates are generally at or near historical lows, this process is not expected to have a major impact on construction activity during the early part of the forecast period. Construction output growth will improve slightly to 3.7% in 2019-2020, before easing back in the latter part of the forecast period, reflecting trends in some of the largest markets, notably China and the US.
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This report provides a detailed analysis of the prospects for the global construction industry up to 2022.
- The improvement in global construction output growth in 2018, accelerating from 3.1% in 2017, reflects a recovery in the US as well as general improvements across the emerging markets. In South and South-East Asia, for example, construction in India has regained growth momentum, while the pick-up in oil prices has supported the recovery in the Middle East and Africa.
- Growth in emerging markets will remain in excess of that in advanced economies over the forecast period, and will steadily gather pace in 2018-2020. Although construction output growth in China is set to slow, to average 4.2% in 2018-2022, this will be offset by an acceleration in construction growth in India. The expansion in advanced economies will remain stable, at 2.5% in 2019-2020 before easing back over the remainder of the forecast period.
- The Asia-Pacific region will continue to account for the largest share of the global construction industry, given that it includes the large markets of China, Japan and India. The pace of growth will slow, however, given the projected slowdown in China’s construction industry.
- Construction activity is gathering momentum across Western Europe. The region’s output will expand by 2.4% a year on average in 2018-2022, improving on the sluggish growth of 1.1% in 2013-2017. The expansion in the UK is subject to major downside risks in the face of uncertainty relating to the outcome of its exit from the EU. Monetary policy within the EU will remain accommodating for much of the forecast period, given subdued inflationary pressures and moderate levels of economic growth.
- There were sharp contractions in construction output in many Eastern European countries in 2016, due to stalled EU funds. There was a sharp reversal in 2017, however, and assuming EU funding continues to flow, the region will expand by 4.8% over the forecast period. The weakness in Russia’s economy will continue to weigh on the country’s construction industry. The impact of the ending of building works related to the Fifa 2018 World Cup will to some extent be offset by the expected improvement in oil prices, which will support investment growth.
- The Middle East and Africa region as a whole will be the fastest growing in 2018-2022, with an annual average growth of 6.4%. Countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have suffered from weakness in oil prices in recent years, as government revenues have been greatly reduced. As oil prices pick up, however, large-scale investment in infrastructure projects - mostly related to transport - will be a key driving force behind the growth in the region. Despite the challenges posed by the regional blockade, Qatar’s construction industry will remain one of the fastest growing in the world, driven by a number of multi-billion infrastructure development projects, as well as preparations for Fifa 2022.
- The pace of growth in sub-Saharan Africa will be particularly strong, averaging 6.6% a year in 2018-2022. There will be a steady acceleration in construction activity in Nigeria over the forecast period to 2022, supported by government efforts to revitalize the economy by focusing on developing the country’s infrastructure. Ethiopia will be Africa’s star performer, with its construction industry continuing to improve in line with the country’s economic expansion.
- Construction activity in Latin America contracted in 2017, reflecting declines in Brazil, Mexico, Colombia and Chile. There will be an improvement in 2018, with the region growing by 1.0% in real terms, but the expansion will continue to be subject to downside risks, with fragile recoveries in Brazil and Mexico. Having expanded rapidly in 2017 and early 2018, there has been an abrupt halt to the pace of construction output in Argentina amid a major corruption scandal and a deterioration in economic stability.
- An overview of the outlook for the global construction industry to 2022
- Analysis of the outlook for the construction industry in major global regions: North America, Latin America, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, South and South-East Asia, North-East Asia, Australasia, the Middle East and North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa.
- A comprehensive benchmarking of 92 leading construction markets according to construction market value and growth
- Analysis of the latest data on construction output trends in key markets.
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Table of content
Table of Contents
1. GLOBAL OUTLOOK 7
2. REGIONAL OUTLOOK: US AND CANADA 15
2.1. Overview 15
2.2. Key Updates 17
3. REGIONAL OUTLOOK: LATIN AMERICA 19
3.1. Overview 19
3.2. Key Updates 23
4. REGIONAL OUTLOOK: WESTERN EUROPE 26
4.1. Overview 26
4.2. Key Updates 30
5. REGIONAL OUTLOOK: EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA 32
5.1. Overview 32
5.2. Key Updates 35
6. REGIONAL OUTLOOK: SOUTH AND SOUTH-EAST ASIA 39
6.1. Overview 39
6.2. Key Updates 43
7. REGIONAL OUTLOOK: AUSTRALASIA 46
7.1. Overview 46
7.2. Key Updates 49
8. REGIONAL OUTLOOK: NORTH-EAST ASIA 50
8.1. Overview 50
8.2. Key Updates 53
9. REGIONAL OUTLOOK: MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA 55
9.1. Overview 55
9.2. Key Updates 59
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